The Emergence of a Different Age of Discord and Aggression

The type of conflict and violence has significantly changed in the 75 years since the establishment of the UN. Today, conflicts are typically less fatal and often occur between domestic factions rather than countries. In certain regions, homicides are on the rise, while attacks based on gender are increasing worldwide. There is also a greater awareness of the lasting effects of interpersonal violence, including violence against children, on development.

Recent technological advancements have sparked worries about the development of lethal autonomous weapons and cyberattacks, as well as the use of bots and drones as weapons and the broadcasting of extremist attacks. There has also been an increase in criminal activities related to stealing data and demanding ransom through ransomware. At the same time, the strain on international cooperation has hindered the potential for global efforts to prevent and resolve conflicts and violence in various forms.

ONGOING CONFLICT

The number of deaths caused by war has been decreasing globally since 1946. However, there has been an increase in conflict and violence at present, with many of these conflicts being fought between non-state organizations like political militias, criminal groups, and international terrorist groups. Regional tensions that remain unresolved, a weakening of the rule of law, the lack of effective state institutions, financial gains through illegal means, and limited resources worsened by the effects of climate change are all major contributing factors to these conflicts.

According to a report, in 2016, there was an increase in the number of countries facing violent conflict, which was the highest in almost 30 years. Additionally, conflicts are now more scattered, such as the Syrian civil war which has seen a rise in the number of armed groups involved, from eight to several thousand. Moreover, the spread of conflict across regions, connecting political, socio-economic, and military matters, has led to longer, drawn-out conflicts that are less likely to be resolved through conventional means.

VIOLENCE, ORGANIZED CRIME, AND DOMESTIC URBAN AREAS

According to statistics, crime is responsible for more deaths than armed conflicts in present times. In the year 2017, approximately 500,000 individuals worldwide lost their lives due to homicides, which is significantly higher than the 89,000 deaths in active armed conflicts and the 19,000 deaths caused by terrorist attacks as recorded in the Global Terrorism Index 2018. The increasing homicide rates, currently at a rate of 4%, are hindering the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals 16, which aims to reduce all forms of violence and related fatalities globally by 2030.

The levels of organized crime and gang violence vary greatly in different regions. The Americas have the highest rates of homicide, making up 37 per cent of the total global number, despite only having 13 per cent of the world’s population. The presence of political instability often leads to organized crime, which can result in targeted attacks on police, women, journalists, and migrants. This issue is no longer limited to low-income countries, as in the past 15 years, more than half of the world’s population has experienced or been near significant political violence.

The home continues to be the most hazardous place for women and girls. According to a report, in 2017, 58% of female homicides were committed by their intimate partners or family members, a rise from 47% in 2012. This indicates that women are disproportionately affected by lethal violence, often due to deep-rooted misogynistic beliefs, unequal treatment, and reliance, which are prevalent worldwide, particularly in low-income nations.

EXTREME VIOLENCE

Despite the widespread presence of terrorism, its impact has decreased in recent years. The global number of fatalities caused by terrorist acts decreased for the third consecutive year in 2018, falling below 19,000. As governments take stronger actions against terrorism, increase regional and international coordination, and implement programs to prevent and combat violent extremism, attacks have become less deadly. In 2017, 20% of terrorist attacks were unsuccessful, a significant increase from just over 12% in 2014.

Terrorism continues to be primarily motivated by conflict, as evidenced by over 99% of all deaths related to terrorism happening in countries that are either engaged in violent conflict or have significant levels of political terror. The Middle East, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa experience the highest number of fatal attacks, with Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia, and Syria bearing the greatest impact.

The main causes of terrorist activity in highly developed countries are social disconnection, limited economic opportunities, and state involvement in an external conflict. While there has been a significant decrease in terrorism-related deaths in recent years in Western Europe, the number of incidents has actually risen. In the past twenty years, there has been a notable increase in attacks by individuals with extremist views, such as far-right, white nationalist, or anti-Muslim beliefs, in both Western Europe and North America. The number of incidents in these regions has gone from three in 2002 to 59 in 2017, with the use of social media playing a critical role in spreading xenophobic language and promoting violence.

With the widespread availability of the internet, extremist organizations now have greater opportunities to reach a wider audience. This allows for improved and seamless processes of recruitment, provocation, and dissemination of propaganda, as well as the acquisition of weapons and unauthorized financial transactions. Additionally, both governmental and non-governmental entities can utilize AI-powered deep learning to produce “deepfakes,” which can fabricate convincing videos of individuals saying things they have never actually said. This technology has the potential to fuel false information, polarize societies, and create political instability.

ADVANCES IN TECHNOLOGY

The evolving state of conflict is being shaped by advancements in technology. There are worries regarding the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning being utilized to bolster cyber, physical, and biological assaults. This could lead to attacks that are more precise, difficult to trace, and feasible for smaller groups or even individuals acting alone.

The access to biological weapons, which are harmful substances or diseases used to cause harm or death to humans, animals, and plants, is becoming easier due to the emergence of new technologies. There are worries that improvements in AI and 3D printing may make it easier to carry out biological attacks, as these technologies can automate the creation and manufacture of these weapons and the processes involved in their development.

The advancement of lethal autonomous weapons (LAWs), which have the ability to identify and attack a designated target without human intervention, has sparked global concerns. This technology would shift the responsibility of life and death from human moral standards to complex data systems without a moral code. The UN Secretary-General has urged for the ban of fully autonomous weapons under international law, supported by more than 30 countries.

Cyber-attacks are currently the most prominent threat in modern times. According to IBM’s X-Force Incident Response and Intelligence Services, there was a two-fold increase in the number of cyber-attacks during the first half of 2019 compared to the second half of 2018. These attacks were mostly aimed at manufacturers, oil and gas companies, and educational institutions. Critical infrastructure owners are particularly vulnerable as malicious individuals target facilities such as airport control towers, nuclear power plants, hospitals, and dams. In the past year, more than a hundred significant cyber incidents that could potentially disrupt international peace and security were reported. These attacks have the potential to cause significant damage and result in casualties.

Conversely, the development of AI and other advancements offer fresh methods and preventative measures for law enforcement and counterintelligence organizations to effectively stop attacks and identify culprits. However, there are potential dangers in this area as well. One such concern is the inclusion of racial and religious prejudices in predictive policing, which may contribute to the radicalization of individuals towards violent extremism.

THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS

In the present day, we are observing the disintegration of the global arms control system and a gradual reversal of previously agreed upon arms control treaties, which have played a crucial role in promoting worldwide stability, self-restraint, and transparency. The continued presence of nuclear weapons poses an increasingly severe danger to the survival of mankind. Despite a decrease in the number of nuclear weapons from over 60,000 during the Cold War to approximately 14,000 presently, these weapons are now more potent. Additionally, the relationships between states with nuclear capabilities are deteriorating, and disagreements regarding the speed and magnitude of disarmament are escalating.

The termination of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in August 2019 was met with disapproval from the UN Secretary-General, who lamented the loss of a crucial deterrent against nuclear war. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) is also facing a similar fate. While the complete eradication of nuclear weapons is still attainable, it will require a renewed commitment to trust and cooperation among the world’s most influential nations. In response, the Secretary-General has urged states to reinvigorate their efforts towards upholding and enforcing existing arms control agreements.

ANTICIPATING THE FUTURE

The United Nations was established in 1945 with the main purpose of managing relationships between different countries, during a time when the world was recovering from two devastating world wars. Although the world is now relatively safer, the types of threats have become more intricate and advanced. These new challenges call for innovative and courageous solutions, as well as stronger partnerships between countries, private companies, and civil society. It is also necessary to break institutional barriers to allow collaboration between political, human rights, and development organizations.